MODEL SCORECARD · PROJECTED VS ACTUAL
Forecast Accuracy
Each week we snapshot our AI target forecast, then grade it against actual results once games go final. A pick is a hit when actual targets land within 2 of the projection.
30%
Season Hit Rate
3 / 10 picks inside the 2-target window
Compare by Week
Predicted vs actual — Week 2
Week hit rate60%3/5
1NOChris OlaveWR
-2
Projected12
Actual10
2ARITrey McBrideTE
-4
Projected11
Actual7
3GBMatthew GoldenWR
-9
Projected11
Actual2
4SEAJaxon Smith-NjigbaWR
+0
Projected10
Actual10
5HOUNico CollinsWR
-1
Projected10
Actual9
| Wk | Receiver | Proj | Actual | Δ | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NOChris OlaveWR | 12 | 10 | -2 | |
| 2 | ARITrey McBrideTE | 11 | 7 | -4 | |
| 2 | GBMatthew GoldenWR | 11 | 2 | -9 | |
| 2 | SEAJaxon Smith-NjigbaWR | 10 | 10 | +0 | |
| 2 | HOUNico CollinsWR | 10 | 9 | -1 | |
| 1 | DETAmon-Ra St. BrownWR | 14 | 20 | +6 | |
| 1 | NOChris OlaveWR | 13 | 26 | +13 | |
| 1 | ARITrey McBrideTE | 13 | 22 | +9 | |
| 1 | SEAJaxon Smith-NjigbaWR | 11 | 24 | +13 | |
| 1 | HOUNico CollinsWR | 10 | 15 | +5 |